Super Bowl 2011
Super Bowl 2011 will be held at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas. It's the third time that the bowl will have been held in Texas (Houston hosted Super Bowls VIII and XXXVIII).
So what are the key areas to focus on when betting this event. One way to look at this final contest, is as a completely separate game, a 'one off'. Discard your findings, statistics and analysis of the playoffs and regular season. Analysing 'regular' stats is unlikely to serve any real purpose because the motivations of each team in a Super Bowl game are totally different to any other NFL game during the course of the season.
Also remember, that historically, the NFL regular season and post season have produced thousands of games and the accompanying statistics to go with them. Super Bowl 2011 by comparison will be one of only a 'handful' of games of that type that have taken place. Forty-four Super Bowl games is not really enough of a sample from which to draw meaningful stats.
Although of course it is wise to take account of which of the two finalists might have produced the better playoff performances; which has the greater momentum coming into the big game; which of the teams may have lost key players to injury; - in games of this magnitude I like to look equally hard at 'emotional' factors that may come into play, after all it is an emotional occasion.
Hearing statements like: "We're going to win it for the coach" - could well mean more in a Super Bowl game than: "We're gonna win because we went 14-2 for the season". I always look at areas such as:
1. A big player's last game.
2. Last game for the coach before retirement.
3. Fresh, exuberant teams - perhaps their first time in Super Bowl (Like the Saints of 2010).
4. Players who have beaten adversity to come back stronger.
5. Unpopular teams with an 'us against the world' attitude.
6. Recent births or deaths in the team camp (but not too recent!).
7. Teams looking tired, perhaps heading for a 'game too far'.
8. Celebrity players 'over-hyping' themselves and their team.
9. Rookies who have been performing well under pressure in the playoffs.
10. Signs of nerves, unrest or disrespecting the opposition.
We could add many more points to the list but you get the general idea.
These are the factors, amongst others, that I will be considering when I try to determine the winner of Super Bowl 2011.
I will also invariably start looking to bet on the underdog straight up and go down that route if I think there is any value. With so much at stake, many teams play above themselves.
Other than a bet on the pointspread or moneyline on the winner, I will also have a bet on the 'totals' market. It is worth remembering that Super Bowl totals tend to run high, when teams get ahead they generally don't sit on a lead. It is the Super Bowl after all and the crowd as well as the occasion demand scores! If I think the line is a fraction too low, I am always on the 'over'.
Good luck in Super Bowl 2011.
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