A year or two ago I played in a casual soccer game twice a week. Just a bit of fun that served as a run out for those
wanting a bit of exercise. The players were of average standard and we picked teams that we knew would be equally matched.
Playing in the first game I could tell that we had got the balance right in terms of teams and players as we had a close game.
I was on the losing team and that was fine - it was just a bit of fun afer all. By the end of that season our win to loss
record was something like 2-10.
Remember that I said we were two evenly mathced sides - and at the end of the season we had still only won two games!
I puzzled over this during the off season - purely from a statistical point of view you understand!
The following season we kept more or less the same sides and we must have ended that season 8 or 9 games to 3 or 4. Ok, so
it wasn't quite as impressive a record as our opponents had achieved the season before but nevertheless it was a huge show of dominance.
Again on the field we were evenly matched - but things just seemed to break for us more often - a bit more luck maybe.
So what is the point of the above story? Well in a very small way it goes towards showing how streaks can occur. I still do
not know why we lost like we did in one season and won like we did in the next - all I can offer up is that people in a game, be it
an amateur or professional contest are, simply, human. You cannot always predict how they will play or how a game will go.
In betting these same streaks occur - you can almost be certain that after a long run of good fortune, you will eventually
come upon a bad run. It is just probability metering out its fair work, but if you are not ready for it, then it can be
disheartening to say the least.
In my betting career I have gone for six months and not had a profitable month - if that doesn't make you question your abilities, then
nothing will. The following two months after that losing streak, I made all my money back and more - but these incidents in the life of a bettor
do take their toll.
To use an analagy from an earlier article, if you have a box filled with a thousand marbles, 560 of them blue - representing
the 'wins' and 440 of them red - representing the 'losers' - it is always possible that picking blind=folded you will pick a lot of red marbles
right of the bat when you open the box. The trick is to stick with it, knowing that if you do your job properly there will
ultimately be more winners in the box for you and a healthy profit waiting by the time that box is empty.
Streaks, they can help you, but also kill you.
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