Part 1 - Key Point Spreads:
In the point spread market a sportsbook 'evens up' games where there is an underdog or favorite by posting a positive or negative
point start to each team e.g +4 / -4 with the odds usually at -110 (10/11). This helps to bring in action
for both teams as opposed to just the favorite - which would most likely be the case if there were
no point spread - since most bettors prefer favorites.
When betting the
NFL point spreads there are some important factors to keep in mind.
Football is scored almost exclusively in increments of three and seven points - with
two, six and eight points being less likely. As a result of this, some point spreads
are more important than others with regards to
NFL betting.
The numbers three and seven are big numbers in the NFL - especially three. Over 13% of NFL games end with a margin of victory of exactly 3.
When you consider all the possible score lines and victory margins 13% is a lot.
Therefore if a
sportsbook moves the line by half a point from 3 it is much more of an important move than moving the line from
half a point from e.g. 9. This is because 9 is not a key number - less than 2% of all games
end with a margin of victory of exactly 9. When you think about how the scoring works in football
this comes as no great surprise.
The key numbers are as follows:
1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17.
About 65% of all NFL games will end with one of the above margins of victory. Sports books do not
like to move off these numbers but are sometimes forced to due to big action on one side. This can
sometimes present an opportunity to the alert bettor. E.g you would much prefer to bet
a favorite at -6.5 on the spread as opposed to -7 or an underdog at +7.5 as opposed to +7.
Also consider that there is not a world of difference between betting a 'dog team at +7.5 and betting
them at +9.5 or a favorite at -7.5 or -9.5. Don't be fooled into believing that the 2 point gap here is significant - the point
gap does not cover any key numbers.
Some people say that it is not possible to beat the sportsbooks, but it is. What you need to remember
is that the sportsbook line is based on popular opinion - the line moves as the action comes in heavily
on one side or the other. All the sportsbook wants to achieve is a 'balancing of its books' so that it
comes away with a percentage of profit whatever the outcome. The line or spread is based on the action taken
and is not necessarily an accurate reflection on which team is likely to win the game.
So the rule is to keep an eye on the spread and decide if key numbers are involved. Check your sportsbook
to see if a spread is competitive. Betfile Sports (www.betfile.com) and VIP (www.vipsportsgroup.com) offer top
lines and is always a good place to start. Once you have established that the line posted is better than your own estimate
- place your bets!
Part 2 - Key Totals:
When betting the
NFL Totals the sportsbook offers
an "over/under" figure e.g. 42.5 and the bettor tries to predict if the combined total scores
of the two teams in a game will be under or over the posted total.
As with point spreads, the way in which NFL games are scored will have a bearing on the
most likely point totals. Indeed some points totals are unlikely ever to occur.
Once you have decided on a likely total in the game, you need to compare this to
the key totals. These are as follows:
30, 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51.
Around 34% of all nfl games end in one of the above totals. Considering the number of possible
other score lines this is a big percentage. 37 is an important number, around 5.7%
of games end in a total of 37. Therefore, it is much less risky to bet "over 36.5" than
"over 37.5". In contrast the difference between 31.5 and 32.5 is insignificant as no key
numbers are covered.
Looking at all totals for a moment, about 50% of games end with total scores of 37-53.
It is worth pointing out that the average total is around 43 - but many people, including handicappers,
make the mistake of thinking that 43 is the most likely score. It is not, it is simply the average.
Read "
NFL Betting" part 1 - Key Point Spreads.
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