I remember as a boy, one of my dad's friends approached me and said. "I bet you a penny that I can stand on one hand and drink this glass of water"
I looked at him and figured that he was too overweight to achieve this and said "Sure, ok".
I waited in awe at the incredible strength and balancing act that was about to unfold in front of my eyes, but he simply squatted down, raised his foot, stuck his hand underneath his heel and drunk down the water. "Oh" I said. Luckily he didn't hold me to the bet - a penny was a week's pocket money back then. But it did teach me a lesson.
Think carefully before betting against someone you don't know, however, unlikely it seems that the layer will win his bet. If you do get involved, think of every possible angle and do your research before getting stuck in.
The same principle applies to many things in life - even to NFL betting and tout services. First of all know that 95% of them will be scams, another 4% will just be plain bad, another 0.5% may break-even, 0.4% will be profitable but only in the short-term, which leaves you with about 0.1% of pick services that are any good.
Don't forget that even if you break even you will be paying subscriptions unless you are being offered free picks - so you will still be out of pocket.
Basically, you can just add the letter "r" in the appropriate place in the word "picks" and that would be about right when applying it to most of those 'services'.
NFL betting is particularly prone to abuse as it is the top betting sport in the US. However, it never ceases to amaze me how outrageous some of the claims are.
There are many issues to bear in mind but the first thing you should know is to differentiate between the 'short term' and the 'long term'. In the short term of course it is possible to go 80%, 90% or 100% in win to loss ratio. My kid could 'stick pins' and go 80% over 10 bets. It is the long term that counts and remember any tout who claims that they have done 65% season after season is a liar. It is impossible to do.
So touts are easy to spot because they regularly make claims of well over 70% or 80% winners season after season and that just isn't going to happen.
I have won 8 to 10 bets in a row at +110 or +120 but I have also lost 12 bets in a row at around even money too. If I was a tout, I know which record I would be putting up!
The other thing to do is to ask questions - who is really running the service? Is there someone to speak to? Who is making the picks? What are the long term results? Have they been proofed?
Other claims such as: "Recent winner of the XYZ NFL Handicapping Tournament" need checking out. It's amazing how often the tournament that they are referring to does not even exist.
If you want to start NFL betting, then don't have a bad experience with a tout or unscrupulous sports picks service. They might give you false confidence to bet larger stakes than you normally would.
It's far better to start small, do your own research and feel your way into the exciting world of
sports betting.
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