If you want to start betting on baseball, be aware that this game, perhaps more than any other US sport, is a 'thinking man's' game. The players think about every pitch and as a bettor you'll need to be breaking it down deeper than the game as a whole. To bet mlb is to immerse yourself into a depth of analysis that is simply not required of some other sports.
MLB betting takes a degree of stamina too - it's a long season with a lot of games and you need to find a way of staying mentally alert right up to the World Series.
Somebody once said that Baseball was 75% pitching, in fact a lot of people say that. Whether or not this is in fact the case is irrelevant but just know that it is a big percentage and the most important single factor in handicapping - you will probably be spending close to that percentage of your time on analysing pitchers even if in terms of importance to the game itself the 75% figure isn't accurate.
Listed Pitchers
You have decided to place a bet. It really is important here that you make use of the 'listed pitchers' option. This allows you to make your bet on the basis that the listed pitchers play. If there is a late withdrawal of a pitcher, your baseball bet will be declared void and your stake returned. This is a much better scenario than not choosing the listed pitcher option in which case you will have 'action' (a live bet) regardless of which pitcher plays. Remember, a second or third string pitcher could have a much worse record than the number one guy and even if you benefit from better odds - you won't be getting any value.
There may be occasions where you are not concerned if the listed pitcher plays for a team and where you want your mlb bet to stand regardless. You may list the pitcher for one team and not list for the other, satisfied that your listed pitcher is far superior to the opposition pitchers, regardless of who they decide to play.
So, for successful betting on baseball, make sure that you select the listed pitchers option, after all the sportsbook or linesmaker sets his line largely based on the scheduled pitcher.
Household Name Pitchers
Most people will know the 'popular' pitchers. The guys who are in form or have played well season after season. But so does the sportsbook and you will pay a premium in terms of odds to bet the top pitchers. That isn't to say that you should never bet them, just be slightly wary of backing them just because they have had a good season.
I once read that famous handicapper Robert Ross had done a study taking over twenty years of stats into consideration - from the late sixties to the early nineties. He was looking at pitchers who had made 20 game seasons (winning 20 games or more). During the period there were something like 161 '20 win' seasons produced by 91 pitchers. 57 of those pitchers (over 60'%') never again in their baseball lives had a 20 win season. Just because 'your guy' is winning this season does not mean he will be winning next season - or even playing well ever again!
The bigger issue is that if you want to bet mlb successfully, you have to realise that if your pitcher has had a terrific winning season, the following season he could prove more expensive to follow and in all likelihood he will be performing worse. You have to spot the good pitchers early in their 'form season'. If you don't catch them while they are hot, you'd do better betting against them, regardless of their reputation.
Why do pitchers come in and out of form:
Personal/family issues.
Injuries.
Team issues (coach/player, player/player relationships).
It's tough mentally to reach the previous season's high.
Unknown Pitchers
These are the guys from the minor leagues, or those who have stepped up into MLB and gone back down again - in effect yo-yoing between leagues. They are simply not 'known' by the average baseball fan.
These pitchers offer up opportunities to the bettor, remember a pitcher can improve immeasurably just by having a better team behind him or even changing to a more favourable location (stadium). If a pitcher's style is better suited to the team and the new venues of the MLB - massive improvement can be made. The hard work is in getting to know your minor-league stats, your teams, your stadia and so on.
If you consider that more often than not the sportsbook takes all its edge out of the favouite team and you add this fact to the issues concerning popular pitchers, you could do a lot worse than look at each game with a view to finding an angle on the underdog every time.
Good luck with your MLB betting.
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