You may have heard about 'Chaos'...no not the kind of chaos that runs many of our lives - although it can and does apply -
but the theory of Chaos. The world as well our lives are interlinked and small adjustments in that chain can have
huge consequences. 'Sensitive dependence on initial conditions' is a term thrown around a bit - but what does it all
mean and more importantly what does it mean for our sports betting?
The first thing is that Chaos is unpredictable. This why there never is, never can be, and never will be a 'lock' in sports betting -
forget about what your buddy says or the statements that the touts and tipsters make over the web. You never know what
may transpire, and never can know... for sure.
There are countless examples of this in many sports. Golf regularly comes up with 66/1 or 100/1 outsiders winning tournaments,
horse racing consistently brings in big priced winners - but why this happens is far more complex.
Years ago in 1988, there was a famous soccer FA Cup final between Liverpool and Wimbledon. Liverpool
were the high achievers of the league and odds on favorites to win. Wimbledon were gritty underdogs but still 'no hopers' in this
game. Wimbledon won it 1-0 - not only that - Wimbledon's goalkeeper saved a penalty against Liverpool's John Aldridge - who
had not missed a penalty.
Why Liverpool lost was far more interesting - as some of those Liverpool players still maintain they lost the game before they
even walked out onto the field. As the two teams lined up in the tunnel before the match Wimbledon nicknamed "the crazy gang" - anti-establishment with
no respect for any team or reputation - began taunting Liverpool and their manager. It was crude, aggressive and downright nasty -
and we won't go into detail! But many people maintain, Liverpool players included, that they were beaten in that tunnel - basically
psyched out.
No one could have predicted Wimbledon's behaviour or Liverpool's reaction that almost certainly decided this game. Yet if you
take any potential team or sport and subject it to some 'chaotic analysis' you will soon realise that there are thousands
of external factors that can impact a sports event - from the personal lives of the participants, to flash photography
and distractions in the crowd. From management and franchise decisions to an altercation with the bus driver taking players to
stadium.
Sometimes player disputes and franchise or club scandal is very public and you can factor it in and gauge how players or
coaches will react. Other times these potential influences are unknown and then it's anyone's guess
how a game might go.
How much of an influence do Chaos and external factors have on game outcomes? We will probably never know...
but in football betting markets - if you are betting on the point spreads - you are doing very, very well to
win 57% of games - which means you are still losing 43% of the time and you might not always be able to see why!
You might conclude that these ethereal outside influences play quite a significant part in your success or failure..
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