From about August onwards
Football Betting (NFL) takes center stage. There are plenty of winners and losers over the course of any given season - pros and recreational bettors join in the action for what has become the biggest sport in the US in terms of betting.
So how can you improve your football betting this season...
Point or Star betting: You've may have seen the touts advertise NFL Sides or Totals picks across the internet - "get our 10 star blow out game tonight.." or "grab our 200 star double header.." The advantage of one team over another in the sides and totals (over/under) market is small - cetainly not enough to justify betting 100%, 50% or even 20% more stake money on one team as against another team in a match up. Try to keep stakes the same.
When the odds are longer say in
futures betting - you can increase or decrease stakes to a degree. You would not necessarily want to bet the same on a 200/1 outsider as you would a 6/1 favourite.
Standard Deviation: This is an important factor. It is important to realise that you will have a few losing plays, the critical factor is not to give up! It takes a lot of bet samples, especially in the sides and totals market where the odds are short, to know if you are a profitable bettor or not. Quite often a bettor can have a bad losing streak to start off with. You may go 3-7, then 6-9, then 3-11 - but this might not necessarily mean that you are a poor gambler - you are hitting a bad streak, this is standard deviation at work - and your losses are probably well within the laws of probability.
Most good bettors still lose about 4.3 bets out of 10 on average but they could easily lose 8,9 or 10 out of 10 for a period of time. You need many hundreds of bet samples to know if you are profitable or not and you can hit the losers first quite easily.
If you are badly down after 350 bets or so - then you may need to re-evaluate your methods.
Solutions: Bet when you think your likelihood of winning is around 55 or 56% depending on the odds. Try to bet a lot, as long as your bets are value, so that you get some kind of representative results.
Bet value
nfl odds at the sportsbooks. Bonuses help of course but they are really a one off on sign up. Long term good value lines are a key factor to success.
Enjoy your
betting!
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