The NBA season is long and arduous, not just for the players but for those betting on the sport. Add to that college games, culminating in 'March Madness' and you have a sport in which many pro bettors choose to make their living due to the sheer volume of games. To succeed you really want to be starting at the beginning when the training camps and the pre-season games start.
Getting a 'feel' for teams is important. Knowing which teams might get off to a flyer or which teams are likely to start slowly, can put the bettor at a big advantage and help to get a jump on the pointspread / linesmaker in the early season games. As a bettor, you'll want to keep an eye on new talent, injuries, form, the age of the squad, trades and so on.
Be wary of the preseason. Some coaches aren't interested in winning games at this stage, they use the pre-season as a forum to look at players and try different combinations against different teams, they might also hold back to conserve energy and then hit their first regular season game with all guns blazing.
Other coaches may want victories, especially against teams that might have humiliated them at the end of the previous season or because the coach is new and wants to prove himself.
The basic scenario for those betting basketball seriously, will be to start in the off-season listening to sports casts, draft and trade information, then continue to monitor news and form during training camps and pre-season, before starting to bet seriously during the regular season. His bets will be placed on daily games in the pointspread, totals and moneyline markets.
One market, however, that the serious bettor will leave alone - is the futures market. Although some pros will regularly trade this market during the season if they have access to the betting exchanges, most will leave it alone. The reason for this is simple, there is no
value in the lines with the bookmakers' cut in this market as much as 50%, sometimes more. Also remember that futures bettors have to tie up their money for relatively long periods of time as they are not going to get paid out on a win until after the Championsip finals.
Another problem is that some sportsbooks still mis-manage their books in futures markets. At the start of the season their market will reflect popular opinion and the top teams like the L.A. Lakers will be artificially short. As the season gets going, prices on other teams may be cut by the sportsbooks if they are doing well. Normally this would result in other teams being pushed out in price but often this doesn't happen. The value in the market therefore diminishes even further, the sportsbook's edge becomes ridiculous and bettors desert the market as most of the prices are way too short.
If you do play in the futures market, probably the best time to play is at the beginning of the season when prices come out. Alternatively, find a sportsbook that manages their futures market efficiently and wait for a price on a team to be pushed out correctly. It can be a long wait to win at futures, often years. If you find a +3300 shot that you feel should be e.g. +1600 and your estimation is correct, you still only have a 5.9% chance of winning.
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